Sunday, October 26, 2008

The “Great Unwind” of 2008 continues, and it looks as though it is trampling
every sector in its path. Next week promises to be another high-stakes week
for stocks, especially with a Federal Reserve meeting and the release of the
much-anticipated GDP number, which could certainly come in a whole lot worse
than the 0.50% decline most economists are expecting. The gloom and doom is
pervasive, and we all know that it is that type of fear-laden atmosphere that
lays the groundwork of a new bull market. We all also know that the stock
market is NEVER that simple, and it has always had a tendency to barbeque
those that expect the conventional wisdom to occur!

One thing the bulls have going for them, though, is the fact that we have now
had WEEKS of fear, panic, and loathing! Markets might not have a gut-wrenching
crash-like bottom, but they do eventually become exhausted! The low we saw in
October of 2002 was followed by two subsequent bottoms, which ultimately
formed a loose-looking triple bottom. The subsequent rally lasted for FIVE
years; so again, remember that markets do eventually change! The current route
is as bad as any the Gorilla can remember, and he does clearly remember the
big dive in October of 1987! They were not nationalizing banks back then, so
chalk that one up as a big worry for this current selloff!

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