Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Seeking Alpha3X Leveraged ETFs

Seeking Alpha3X Leveraged ETFs Immediately Popular with TradersMonday November 10, 11:25 am ET By Index Universe
IndexUniverse submits: By Matthew Hougan
Contrary to expectations (including mine), the Direxion 300% leveraged and inverse ETFs are rapidly gaining traction in the marketplace.
The company launched eight super-leveraged ETFS last week:
Fund
Ticker
Index
Large Cap Bull 3x Shares
BGU
Russell 1000 (300%)
Large Cap Bear 3x Shares
BGZ
Russell 1000 (-300%)
Small Call Bull 3x Shares
TNA
Russell 200 (300%)
Small Cap Bear 3x Shares
TZA
Russell 2000 (-300%)
Energy Bull 3x Shares
ERX
Russell 1000 Energy (300%)
Energy Bear 3x Shares
ERY
Russell 1000 Energy (-300%)
Financial Bull 3x Shares
FAS
Russell 1000 Financial Services (300%)
Financial Bear 3x Shares
FAZ
Russell 1000 Financial Services (-300%)
The funds are designed to deliver 300% and -300% of the daily return of their benchmark indexes, and follow in the success of the wildly successful ProShares ETFs, which provide 200% and -200% exposure to the market.
I must admit: I was very skeptical of these funds' prospects?at first. I worried that the funds were not appropriate for real "investors." 300% is a lot of leverage, particularly when volatility is as high as it is today. Investors could easily lose half their money in a single day.
Moreover, I was concerned about the issue of compounding. I have written extensively about how compounding causes the long-term returns of leveraged funds to deviate from their expected goals. These ETFs are designed to deliver 300% or -300% of the daily returns of their benchmarks. Over a week, month or year, however, they won't come close to that 300% return, because compounding (particularly in volatile markets) will have an enormous impact on the results.
I was also skeptical that these ETFs would attract much of a trading audience. The ProShares ETFs have enormous liquidity, which is one of the reasons they appeal to the trading community. I doubted that these ETFs could attract enough liquidity to convince the trading community to switch from the ProShares ETFs, despite the higher leverage rate offered by Direxion.
But since they launched on Wednesday, the Direxion ETFs have attracted significant trading volume and activity.
On its first day on the market, for instance, the Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (NYSEArca: BGZ) traded just 13,000 shares. On day 2, it traded 123,000 shares. Today, it traded 334,000 shares.
Its twin, the LargeCap Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEArca: BGU) has done even better, trading 19,000 shares, 361,000 shares and 581,500 shares, respectively.
That's certainly not anywhere near what the ProShares funds trade. The ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SSO) traded 80 million shares today.
But hitting half a million shares traded on just the third day on the market is pretty darn good for an ETF. A lot of funds that I consider fairly liquid trade less than 500,000 shares per day, such as the Rydex S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEArca: [[RSP]]) and the PowerShares Dynamic Market ETF (NYSEArca: [[PWC]]).
I still don't think the Direxion ETFs make sense for investors, but it looks like the trading community might well embrace them.
More on choosing the right ETF

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Sunday, October 26, 2008

The “Great Unwind” of 2008 continues, and it looks as though it is trampling
every sector in its path. Next week promises to be another high-stakes week
for stocks, especially with a Federal Reserve meeting and the release of the
much-anticipated GDP number, which could certainly come in a whole lot worse
than the 0.50% decline most economists are expecting. The gloom and doom is
pervasive, and we all know that it is that type of fear-laden atmosphere that
lays the groundwork of a new bull market. We all also know that the stock
market is NEVER that simple, and it has always had a tendency to barbeque
those that expect the conventional wisdom to occur!

One thing the bulls have going for them, though, is the fact that we have now
had WEEKS of fear, panic, and loathing! Markets might not have a gut-wrenching
crash-like bottom, but they do eventually become exhausted! The low we saw in
October of 2002 was followed by two subsequent bottoms, which ultimately
formed a loose-looking triple bottom. The subsequent rally lasted for FIVE
years; so again, remember that markets do eventually change! The current route
is as bad as any the Gorilla can remember, and he does clearly remember the
big dive in October of 1987! They were not nationalizing banks back then, so
chalk that one up as a big worry for this current selloff!

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Credit Crunch Rocks Bain, as Funds Fall Up to 50%




















essica Marie Alba (born April 28, 1981)[1] is an American television and film actress. She began her television and movie appearances at age 13 in Camp Nowhere and The Secret World of Alex Mack (1994). Alba rose to prominence as the lead actress in the television series Dark Angel (2000–2002).[2][3] Alba later appeared in various films including Honey (2003), Sin City (2005), Fantastic Four (2005), Into the Blue (2005), Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer and Good Luck Chuck both in 2007.
Alba appears on the "Hot 100" section of Maxim and was voted AskMen.com's number one on their list of "99 Most Desirable Women" in 2006, as well as "Sexiest Woman in the World" by FHM in 2007. The use of her image on the cover of the March 2006 Playboy sparked a lawsuit by her, which was later dropped. Alba has won various awards for her acting, including the Choice Actress Teen Choice Award and Saturn Award for Best Actress (TV) for her acting in the series Dark Angel, though her acting has also been criticized, as she has been nominated for numerous Razzie Awards as well.


Some high-profile Bain Capital credit-investment funds are choking on losses of as much as 50%, said people familiar with the matter, the latest revelation in a day of shake-ups across the hedge-fund business.

The private-equity firm's credit affiliate, Sankaty Advisors LLC, has lost between 40% and 50% across two funds that bought up highly secured corporate loans, these people said. The two vehicles had roughly $4 billion in assets just a few weeks ago, and used a relatively low amount of borrowed money to fund their investments.

Steep losses have also hit London hedge fund Centaurus Capital LP, which Wednesday offered its investors a chance to cut their fees. And, at Tudor Investment Corp., one of the oldest and best-regarded hedge funds, fund manager James Pallotta finalized a plan to run his own firm separate from longtime colleague Paul Tudor Jones.

The developments at Bain, meanwhile, are a blow to a group of top-tier institutions that long have been investors with the Boston-based firm. Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Notre Dame all have some money invested in Bain's loss-making credit funds. Two of the problem funds include Sankaty's Special Situations and Prospect Harbor.

As market conditions have deteriorated, Sankaty has had to seek new, but more expensive, financing for some of its key borrowing facilities. It recently obtained longer-dated terms to stave off margin calls, which typically kick in if asset values fall below a certain price. The funds have not seen significant redemptions, according to a spokesman.

The market for leveraged loans -- senior loans issued by banks largely to fund buyout deals -- has plummeted in the last month. A Standard & Poor's index of leveraged loans now trades at 70 cents on the dollar, down from 88 cents one month ago. Until last summer, these senior loans rarely traded below par, or 100 cents on the dollar. In recent weeks numerous "bid lists" have flooded the market, creating overwhelming supply and further damping prices.

Money managers such as Bain, Blackstone Group LP and Carlyle Group have piled into this business in recent months, hoping to scoop up low-priced credits of high-quality companies. In many ways, these credit investments were supposed to fill a hole created by the greatly diminished market for private-equity buyouts. Sankaty's Special Situations fund, for instance, was raised in August 2007.

To fund these new transactions, loan investors typically borrowed some money to amplify returns. Many used facilities called total return swaps, known on Wall Street as TRS. Under these facilities, if the value of a loan declines to a certain price, the bank can secure more collateral or unwind the contract.

The Sankaty funds averaged about a dollar of leverage, or borrowed money, for each dollar of capital that belonged to investors. That level of borrowing was relatively low compared with many other investors, but it shows how even seemingly low-risk bets have suffered as the credit markets have virtually frozen.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Sunday, September 07, 2008

Emails From David Moffett and Dick Syron to Freddie Mac Employees

"From: Employee Communications
Sent: 09/07/2008 08:57 PM EDT
Subject: E-Mails from Freddie Mac CEO David Moffett and Dick Syron

Good evening, I am David Moffett - the new CEO of Freddie Mac. Attached below is a letter from former CEO and Chairman Dick Syron, whose contributions to this company over the past four years are deeply appreciated. I’ll be communicating with you a lot in the coming days and weeks, so there’s no need to go into great detail here. For now, I just want to say a few key things.

I appreciate the long hours that Freddie Mac’s employees have been putting in to strengthen the company and serve the GSE mission in this difficult environment. I can only imagine the pressure you have been under, and the frustrations you must have felt in recent weeks. This has been a difficult and draining period for all of you. I want to thank you for your extraordinary service during an extraordinary time.

I’m going to work very hard as CEO to provide the leadership Freddie Mac needs. I sincerely believe the company has a great opportunity to improve and strengthen itself during this period with the government’s support. And I look forward to making the decisions that will help this company move forward. I would not have taken this job if I was not deeply supportive of the company’s mission and its essential role in helping our nation through the toughest housing market in decades.

On Tuesday, we will conduct an All-Employee Town Hall that I would like you to attend. In the meantime, please stay focused and continue to conduct the company’s business in the ordinary course.

Treasury Secretary Paulson said in today’s announcement, “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are critical to turning the corner on housing.” I couldn’t agree more. The expertise and commitment of Freddie Mac’s employees is a major asset to the company - as well as the country - and I look forward to meeting you in the coming days.

David Moffett
Message From Dick Syron

To the Employees of Freddie Mac:

As you have probably heard, the Treasury Department announced today that it has placed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae under the conservatorship of our regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Under conservatorship, FHFA will assume direct control of both companies. FHFA has appointed David Moffett, former Vice Chairman and CFO of U.S. Bancorp, to succeed me as CEO. He will be joined by an equally strong non-executive Chairman, John Koskinen. I will retire and have offered to assist in the transition.

With the turmoil in the housing and mortgage markets over the past year, the role Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae play in providing affordable mortgages to homeowners and reliable liquidity to lenders is more important than ever. The conservatorship process is designed to ensure that the GSEs continue to fulfill that critical role, despite the significant increase in credit losses and erosion in capital we have experienced.

Under the conservatorship process, Treasury will backstop the GSEs, providing additional capital if future credit losses cause our capital base to be depleted. This will ensure that we can continue to operate and fulfill our housing mission.

Treasury Secretary Paulson today said, “I attribute the need for today’s action primarily to the inherent conflict and flawed business model embedded in the GSE structure, and to the ongoing housing correction. GSE managements and their Boards are responsible for neither.”

We have been through a lot together. Earlier this year we completed a multi-year accounting restatement, a massive and complex project. More recently, we have had to manage significant increases in delinquencies, foreclosures and loan modifications as a result of the sharp decline in house prices. I am deeply grateful for your commitment and hard work through all of this, and proud of what we have accomplished together amid the worst housing market in our lifetimes.

I accepted the CEO position at Freddie Mac at the end of 2003 because I believed in the company’s housing mission. Given the current turmoil in the housing market, I believe that mission is even more important today.

As the conservatorship process plays out, I ask you to stay focused on performing your job responsibilities and give your full support to Mr. Moffett so that Freddie Mac can continue to fulfill its housing mission. The vast majority of our employees will see no changes in their day-to-day activities as a result of the conservatorship process.

It has been a pleasure and an honor to work with all of you.

Sincerely,

Dick

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Cisco is putting up $215 million for PostPath so it can include the company's e-mail and calendaring software in Cisco's upcoming collaboration service, WebEx Connect. But the software could also become a component in a unified communications bundle that businesses buy outright, industry observers say.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Thursday, July 17, 2008

MBA toughens ride

Credit crunch hits MBA financingFinancial Times, UK - Jul 14, 2008In today’s Business Education section of the FT: a story by Della Bradshaw showing how the crisis in the credit markets is making it more expensive ...

The need for understanding social media and Web 2.0Merinews, India - Jul 16, 2008WHILE MANAGEMENT education, online or face-to-face, is on the rise with a spurt of Master of Business Administration (MBA) and other ancillary institutions

Warning: Google is becoming Microsoft's evil twin

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

EMC replaces the chief and co-founder of VMware, silencing talk of a spinoff - International Herald Tribune

"For the last month, several reports from Wall Street analysts have debated whether EMC, the big computer storage company, would sell off its 85 percent stake in its crown jewel, VMware, a fast-growing software star.
EMC seems to have given its answer with a dramatic gesture on Tuesday. It fired VMware's chief executive and co-founder, Diane Greene. She is being replaced by Paul Maritz, a former senior executive at Microsoft who joined EMC this year when it bought his Web start-up.
Greene was fired after she refused to resign or take another position at VMware, according to a VMware manager who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
The point of conflict, the person said, was that Greene had been pushing hard for VMware to be spun off early next year. After five years of ownership, a subsidiary can be sold off in an essentially tax-free transaction. EMC bought VMware for $635 million in cash in December 2003."

Monday, July 07, 2008

What Does Microsoft Have in Store for Photography? - Seeking Alpha

"My pal Robert Scoble has a blog post up entitled, 'Is Microsoft (MSFT) Trying to Capture the Photography Market?' Robert's post is in part a reaction to Microsoft's invite-only Pro Photo Summit which is taking place this week on Wednesday and Thursday at Microsoft's campus in Redmond. Scoble is going to be attending as am I.

This is the third year that Microsoft has held a Pro Photo Summit, so I'm not entirely sure that this event is predictive of any change in Microsoft strategy towards photography per se. This is the first year that I'm going, though, and I'm excited to check out what Microsoft has in store to share with us.

The agenda for this year's events includes a keynote talk by Microsoft CTO David Vaskevitch and a photographer keynote by photographer Frans Lanting. Additionally, summit topics include microstock photography (Lise Gagne, Artistic Director of iStockPhoto will be there), an update on the orphan works act, Eric Chan from Adobe (ADBE) on camera profiling, a talk about photographing the Presidential campaign from the Washington Post's Melina Mara and a number of presentations from folks doing interesting things with photography from the Microsoft Research groups."
"Technology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
By the mid 20th century, humans had achieved a mastery of technology sufficient to leave the surface of the Earth for the first time and explore space. ...en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology "

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Saturday, April 05, 2008

Microsoft Sets Deadline for Yahoo to Make Deal - New York Times

Microsoft Sets Deadline for Yahoo to Make Deal - New York Times: "Microsoft warned the board of Yahoo on Saturday that if a merger agreement was not completed in the next three weeks, Microsoft would make its offer directly to Yahoo shareholders, probably at a lower price."

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Monday, March 03, 2008

paris

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

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